Does the Third Party Matter?

Just read this article, The Power of the Protest Vote, which talks about how the third party in swing states might affect the outcome of general election, especially when the race is in a tie, like the 2000 Gore vs. Bush.

It reminded me of an interesting question which was tested once in a course I TAed for, ECON200 Introductory Microeconomics. The question is as follows:

In the US, there have always been only two major political parties. Although third-party candidates such as Ralph Hader have some, perhaps double-digit, support in the general population, these candidates never get elected. Apply marginal analysis to this question and explain why the US operates with only two major parties.

I remember at that time we gathered in the office and tried to figure out a perfect answer to students, but none of us was convinced by any interpretation we came up. Basically, I think, because the electoral system of the US is that the candidate who wins more popular votes in a state gets all electoral votes of the state (winners take all), this all-or-nothing makes a third-place candidate's marginal benefit of extra effort equal to zero. In other words, even if he finally moves to the second place in the election, he gets nothing. His cost is definitely greater than his zero marginal benefit. The fundamental principle of economics says that an action is rational only when the marginal benefit is higher the marginal cost. Therefore the only way for this third-party candidate to exert his influence is to attach himself to one of the two leading candidates. This is also what the article above is about.


(I am not pretty sure if my explanation makes sense. Any comment is welcomed.)

Against All Odds

FM106.9 is now again playing Phil Collins' Against All Odds. I hear this song almost everyday. Time flies and my nearly four-month summer vacation is going to have only two months left. My research progress is totally falling behind and my life is completely off track (same as last summer though). I've got to make a timetable otherwise I'll cry to death when the school starts in the end of September.

My hopefully-will-be-realized plan is that, before going back home 8/27 for the rest of the summer,
- Finish the model setup and propose an estimation strategy;
- Meet advisor two more times or send him my work if he can't come to school.

* * *
Against all odds, I got to accompolish my little tiny mission before going back home meeting my dear family.

【Mamma Mia!】

前天晚上去看了 Mamma Mia! 電影版，在學校附近的 Landmark Metro Cinemas看，話說我在這邊待了四年第一次到這家戲院看，平常大部分都到 downtown 的 AMC，因為 AMC 進場之後就沒人管，可以一次看好幾部，不過我通常看完兩部就不行了。有次跟肥貓他們去看 Batman Begins，前面又亂看了不是很好看的 Bewitched，到了 Batman Begins 就開始有點累，加上很多聽不懂，差點睡著，看完之後完全不行了，但 fatcat 他們卻繼續看了 Star Wars 3，我就是愛貪小便宜但又沒本錢。

媽媽咪呀電影版說實在是個大鬧劇，FC 說很有周星馳的搞笑風，誇張的演法讓我覺得有點像是在 make fun of the musical。劇情橋段跟原版音樂劇差不多，但電影版稍嫌粗糙，不過也許質感不是電影版的重點。演媽媽的 Meryl Streep 形象大犧牲；演即將結婚的女兒的 Amanda Seyfried 很清新可愛；演不知名的未婚夫外型有點令人失望；我想不到有誰比老牌演員 Christine Baranski 更適合演媽媽姊妹掏風味猶存的 Tanya；Colin Firth 的英國腔依舊迷人；Pierce Brosnan 的歌聲真的是夠了。

星期三晚上七點場座無虛席，大部分都是中年婦女姊妹掏下班後結伴來看，那些阿姨看的非常融入，其實有些笑點原本並沒有那麼好笑，但他們誇張的笑聲讓整個氣氛格外歡樂，好幾次 Meryl Streep 唱完歌我很想鼓掌但有點猶豫（在電影院鼓掌好像有點怪），沒想到到 end credits 的時候那些阿姨把演唱會那套全部搬來，跟著歌曲揮手並且一起哼唱！

時代雜誌上對媽媽咪呀電影版的評價是 "Great Music, Weird Moive"，並討論了到底是誰會去看這部電影，以下是幾個極有可能的觀眾群
1) 那些有去看慾望城市電影版的女性慾望城市影集迷；
2)那些喜愛 High School Musical 的小鬼；
3)男同性戀；
外加
4)超過二十億看過原版音樂劇的廣大觀眾群。
我符合第一和第四項。

我很好奇喜歡阿巴合唱團但不符合任何上述條件的男性會去看嗎（我覺得應該是不會），看了又會有什麼感想呢。依劇目前的 survey，王子先生似乎很期待媽媽咪呀在泰國上映、工程師先生也頗有興趣，不過這兩人都看過了音樂劇，而且王子先生不太能算在第三項之外 XD

媽媽咪呀稱不上是個好電影，但不可否認地娛樂效果的確很強，還讓我經歷了我從所未見粉絲自嗨的盛況。這種電影就跟慾望城市一樣很兩極化，沒興趣的人完全不會想看，但一旦迷上的人就會很樂在其中。

Never-Give-Up T-shirt

Hillary Clinton's Campaign is selling limited-edition Never-Give-Up T-shirts to raise money to repay her debt XD

The shirt is cute and I like the slogan.

"For everyone who's ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out and for everyone who works hard and never gives up. This one is for you."

It's very inspirational for me except I don't really work hard and always think about giving up even though I never really did. Sometimes I really need someone to tell me "Yui, please don't give up. Hang in there." Simple words can bring me unsimple strength.

This t-shirt is too expensive though, 50 bucks.

Chinese Democracy

"Chinese Democracy" is used to mean something that is long promised but will never happen.

E.g., "That marriage proposal is totally Chinese Democracy. Move on, girl."

Source - http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1818182,00.html

(SNL) There Can Only Be One

I saw this on Saturday Night Live rerun last week. It's fun. The half-and-half face idea actually came from one cover of Time http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,20080505,00.html

You are Not Going to Get Anywhere by Threatening Me

有些美國小孩唸書不好好念，要分數時倒非常理直氣壯，我最討厭這種愛鬼叫的小孩。有時候因為很忙懶得聽他們 whining 就隨便塞個一兩分給他們，但我這種態度恐怕會姑息養奸，讓會叫的小孩有糖吃。最近到了期末，鬼叫的小孩又開始冒出來，恰逢學期結束我閒來沒事，遇上這個態度不佳沒大沒小的小孩，就決定來好好整治一下。


事情發生經過是這樣的。

[時間點一] Exam2 考完當天：學生T女馬上發了一封信給我，說想跟我討論她的 Exam1，覺得有的部分她不知道為何被扣分。我當時覺得很煩，還不想改 Exam2，又加上一堆人寄信來說要試算他們的總成績，Exam1 早就八百年的事，現在有什麼好討論，所以就想說之後再回。

[時間點二] 過了一星期，學期結束這週，我終於改完考卷，就順便回了這一堆的人信，大部分人的信都只是問成績，就回個數字，T女我看她這次考很好，就跟她講一下這次的成積，想說也許就不會再吵了。

[時間點三] 沒想到過了兩天，她又寄信來，說她之前要求要討論，但我一直沒有回覆那個部分。信裡說她目前已離開學校，但過幾天會回來，希望可以再我送出成績前可以討論。我覺得她很難纏（之前就三不五時蹺課，態度也不佳），所以想說過幾天再回，反正她應該還沒回來。

[時間點四] 結果我一拖就忘了，今天她又寄了一封，說我之前都沒回她，卻把成績交出去了。我想說這次不回不行了，把她前一封調出來仔細看了一下，她的信主要 argue 兩點，第一點是說她期中常生病，所以第一次沒考好，她覺得她第二次考試還有小考都考很好，可以證明她第一次的成績不足以證明她的實力，希望可以調整比重之類的。
（我是有點半信半疑，之前看她都好好的，每次上課我在台上講她在下面跟人有說有笑。）

第二點說她拿她第一次考試跟她在其他助教班的朋友比（其他班也是同一個教授同樣的考卷，只有改考卷的人不同），說她很多地方都被扣分，但她朋友都沒有 ............. 這一點把我惹毛了，她之前小考時也來跟我argue 過這點，氣人的是他們常常也搞不懂自己為何錯，只是純粹愛要分。那時我還只是委婉以對，不想撕破臉。其實這也不是第一次遇過這種 case，只不過她的信剛好是壓垮駱駝的最後一根稻草。

於是我就非常認真地回了她一封信。


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi xxx,
I had to submit the grade before Monday morning according to the school policy but the grade can still be changed if there is any mistake. I will keep your exams for another quarter in case there will be anything you want to discuss.

Regarding the formula of calculating your grades, there is very limited I can do. I can only follow Prof. H's grading policy. You might need to talk to H to make your case. But I don't think you will get a good chance.

About my grading of your first exam, I think you should have discussed it with me right after the first exam. Two points I would like to respond. First, when grading each question, I looked at whether the key points were presented and also the quality of explanations based on H's grading guide. When you wonder why you lost certain points in each question, you should compare your answer with the answer key but not your friend's. Your answers might be just a little bit different from your friend's but that little difference made your answer wrong. Second, every TA followed same grading guide but it's impossible to get every TA to grade exactly the same. You might feel some of your answers were graded more toughly. However you might also get some answers graded more easily but you never know because you didn't mind it so you never checked.

Anyway, if you think your answers are worth more, you are welcome to talk to me. I will be around the campus next week.

Yu-i
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原本有點猶豫會不會太兇，後來想了想，只是公事公辦，以前對他們太好以為我好欺負，哼。Sophie 說得沒錯，對他們兇一點才能有效制止 whining XD


寫完信之後突然想起有一集TWW，一個偏激基督教保守派份子 Mary Marsh 跑到白宮威脅副幕僚長 Josh 和 副新聞部主任 Sam ，要求提供避難所給因為在大陸被迫害而偷渡來美國的基督徒，Mary 藉著她所在教會（？）背後廣大的保守派選民，在那邊大小聲語帶威脅外加挑釁時，Josh 對她說了下面這句話 "Mary, I swear to God, you are not going to get anywhere in this building by threatening me."

Summer Finally Came to Seattle

這學期在上星期四幾小時瘋狂閱卷加上星期五早上和海蒂最後一次meeting後正式結束。海蒂是我這學期當TA課的老師，是一個嬌小但活力十足的伊朗媽媽，有著一口標準的英文加上一點可愛的伊朗腔，有的人覺得她把大學生當幼稚園小朋友在教，不過我到滿佩服她的熱誠，她隨時都看起來很high。

其實從上星期一跟指導教授 meeting 完就開始自動放假，星期二去看了春假在紐約原本計畫要看但沒看到的音樂劇 Avenue Q， 去之前有先聽一下原聲帶，原聲帶很不錯，我最喜歡的一首是 Purpose ，在講尋找人生的目的 before it's too late，另一首也滿喜歡的是 I Wish I Could Go Back to College。這天是來西雅圖巡迴的第一場，在 Paramount Theater 演出。整齣劇非常歡樂，可惜有幾個笑點因為在聽原聲帶的時候就笑過了，現場看時雖然還是有趣，但就不比第一次看到時那麼好笑，不過現場大家都笑得非常開心，有幾個笑點沒有聽得很懂，大家都在瘋狂大笑時，我還在 try to figure out XD。這一年就以這樣一個歡樂的劇收場。

時間真的很好混，我現在 procrastinate 的能力到達極致（註：The Power of Procrastination，詳情請見 PhD Comics），我有辦法看 New York Times 度過一整天。不想做事的時候怎麼樣都有辦法混，睡到中午起來，一邊吃午餐一邊看新聞，一個 link 接一個 link，就跟做研究的文獻回顧沒有兩樣，跟看壹週刊也沒有差多少，看一看頭有點暈就睡一下午覺，睡起來就差不多可以吃晚餐了。

星期六去參加王子的畢業典禮，上星期的天氣真是詭異到不行，都六月了還冷得要命，據說紐約都攝氏四時幾度了，西雅圖大概是現在全美最冷的地方。學校裡出現各種族大融合，從韓國台灣日本大陸到印度和一些我也辨認不出是哪國的家庭們，舉家大小一起共襄盛舉，我發現金髮洋妞穿學士服還滿好看的。和王子照完相我們幾個系上的同學一起吃了午餐外加打屁，韓國夫人說她最近在看 Obama 的 The Aducaity of Hope 和 Paul Krugman 的 The Conscience of A Liberal，我前陣子剛好也在 Barnes and Nobel 把大部分的 The Aducaity of Hope 看了，還有 Krugman 新書的前面一點，真開心可以一起討論，韓國夫人也是白宮風雲和 Josh 的愛好者 XD

星期天天氣終於回歸正常夏天該有的樣子，在綠湖附近漫步真是人生一大享受，三一冰淇淋大排長龍，小酒吧的 Happy Hours 也擠滿了穿著清涼的人們，水上腳踏車看起來好像也很好玩。夏天總算來啦。






晚上看了 Tony Awards 頒獎典禮，在紐約 Radio City 舉行，我和 CC 從八點開始盯著電視等待親愛的 Bradley 先生的出現，網路上說他會是其中一位 Presenter，但琥碧戈伯介紹頒獎者時沒有出現他的照片，我們在想他該不會臨時不來吧，他的 Boeing Boeing 有被提名，他怎麼可以不來。典禮由獅子王開場，看起來很棒，原本對獅子王沒什麼興趣，看了那個開場，以後有機會也想看一下。接下來就是一堆不認識的老牌演員在頒獎，穿插幾個熟面孔，像是我覺得超正的熟女 Mary Louis Parker、白宮風雲六七季的一角 Aaron Sorkin 前女友 Kristin Chenoweth（後來我才知道她是 Wicked 的原版女主角，真是太神奇了），還有總統的第二任秘書 Lily Tomlin。還好鏡頭有帶過布萊德利兩次，讓我們兩個忠實的粉絲沒有太失望，不過很可惡的是，CBS在十一點時因為要撥夜間新聞，把很多部分剪掉了，像是 Boeing Beoing 得了 Best Revival of a Play 上台的部分都沒了，我上網找了半天都找不到那個片段 >.<

My Political Aptitude

You are a Social Liberal (60% permissive) and an... Economic Liberal (38% permissive) You are best described as a: Centrist Link: The Politics Test on Ok Cupid Also : The OkCupid Dating Persona Test

我想我應該比較算是中間偏左吧。

I Am A Crazy Fan

有朋友去紐約玩，看了 Bradley Whitford（Josh in The West Wing）最近在 Broadway 演的舞台劇 Boeing Boeing，看完後在門口拿到了 Josh 的簽名並和他合照！！害得我也好想再去一次紐約。春假去時還未上映，如果多待十九天就可以參加首映，完成今年繼和歐巴馬握手之後未完成的心願 XDXD
（比起歐巴馬，我更想見到 Josh 啊，和歐巴馬握手純粹只是為了一睹未來美國總統的風采）

據說 Josh 的粉絲都是媽媽級的，他很逗趣，把一個胖媽媽逗得很開心。我好像常常都和媽媽們的喜好相同，我媽說 Josh 完全就是一個熟男，anyway，不論是戲裡的 Josh 或是 Bradley 本人我都很愛。

好想再去一次紐約。It's an once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to see Josh XD